The court scholar serving Hermann of Thuringia.

The court scholar serving Hermann of Thuringia.
The scholar

2024/04/17

War in Ukraine 16Apr2024

 

“The first dawn of 2023" by the fallen warrior Pavlo Petrychenko

Ukraine won’t win, according to Zelenskyy, if it doesn’t get supplies from the US.

House Democrats are annoyed that Speaker Johnson isn’t just putting the Senate Ukraine bill on the floor for an up or down vote.

Ukraine defended a power plant, but ran out of anti-aircraft missiles. The plant was gutted.

Zelenskyy was interviewed by PBS. He feels the West is very concerned about the consequences of a possible Ukrainian victory, but feels the consequences of a Ukrainian defeat are very much in the immediate future and are quite dire.

Ukrainians very aware of how Israel and Ukraine get very different levels of protection from allies.

“two years of escalation management” has given Russia time to recover and to rebuild its army. Putin has no reason to stop now.

Foreign Affairs puts out a rather silly piece on peace talks in March 2022. I’ve looked into these talks myself. They had no chance of succeeding. “certain high-browed armchair strategists” were convinced that the talks had a serious chance. They didn’t. Writers from the Polish Institute of International Affairs did a debunking thread on the piece. The Russian “goal was to present the Ukrainian side with an ultimatum…”

From a piece in the Economist: “An agreement made with a compulsive liar probably means only one thing: him regrouping, rearming and trying for more in two or three years.” Putin still has maximalist aims.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/04/16/war-for-ukraine-day-783-the-gop-house-majoritys-dysfunction-is-actively-harming-ukraine/

2024/04/15

War in Ukraine 15Apr2024

 

Noticing the different reactions to air assault by Russia and Iran, many Eastern European states are apparently considering getting nuclear weapons.

Actually, splitting the votes on Israel and Ukraine is probably a good idea, but no, I don’t agree with Speaker Johnson that Ukraine should “stand on its own.”

Israel is determined to strike Iran, even though Biden is encouraging them to “take the win.”

Zelenskyy examines the many allies who helped to shoot down the Iranian aerial attack.

LTG Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR), sat for an interview with ICTV

Heartwarming greeting by Ukrainians to soldiers who received prosthetic legs.

Ukrainian firefighter runs half-Marathon in full fire-fighting gear.

Representative Greene again argues there’s no evidence Russian conquests will continue after Ukraine falls. Erm, remind me, what evidence was there that Ukraine would be invaded to begin with?

VP Harris tells Zelenskyy to stop bombing Russian fuel-making facilities. Blogger calls her idea “strategic malpractice.” Ukrainians are quite rightfully annoyed that they’re getting strategic imitations while NOT getting weaponry!

By the way, cutting off US aid to Ukraine did NOT result in Ukraine surrendering to Russia!

The Czech ammunition initiative has attracted onsiderable international attention. This is a positive thing.

In the village of Robotyne, ALL of the houses were destroyed!

Israel assessing whether to strike back at Iran or not.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/04/15/war-for-ukraine-day-782-if-the-opposite-of-pro-is-con-then-the-opposite-of-progress-is-a-gop-majority-in-congress/

2024/04/04

War in Ukraine 5Apr2024


 

US sanctions are doing some good! An oil refinery was damaged and can’t be fixed without US parts. The damaged component was producing over 400k tons a month of gasoline.

“Today, 350,000 households in Kharkiv are without electricity.” A nuclear facility in Kharkiv was also endangered.

More “double tap” bombing. Three First Responders die.

NATO is 75 years old now.

“’We have assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily,’ said Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell.” Russians have lost 315k soldiers, but defense spending is up 6% of National GDP and Russians have placed their economy on a war footing. China is helping them.

Good news: “armored losses are being replaced by civilian vehicles such as vans, pickup trucks, and other unarmored vehicles.” At a minimum, according to Oryx, which counts only verified losses, Russia has lost over 15k vehicles, which includes 2,856 tanks. Ukraine has also sunk 20 Russian ships, again, Ukraine doesn’t have a Navy.

Congressman Ted Lieu and many other American officials support Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries.

When towns are evacuated, older Ukrainians often stay behind. NPR looks at those who stay behind.

Putin doesn’t believe that there are radical Islamisms in Russia, their presence must be a Western plot!

Many more details about Havana Syndrome than was presented on 60 Minutes the other day.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/04/04/war-for-ukraine-day-771-the-butchers-bill-from-kharkiv/

2024/03/31

War in Ukraine 31Mar2024

 

Two-year anniversary of liberation of Bucha. A mass gravesite has been established.

Ukraine hasn’t fully moved to a Western calendar yet, so their Easter is 5 May.

The last piece of the two Donetsk provinces was Avdiivka, which makes that city quite important.

Ukraine’s largest gas storage location is in Stryi, in the Western-most province in Ukraine.

Russia is trying to wear down Ukrainian air defenses, power generation and transmission and their agricultural sector.

France will deliver hundreds of armored personnel carriers.

As the US Ambassador runs to the air raid shelter along with Ukrainians, US effectiveness ebbs. Knowing the Trump may win the 2024 election adds to the gloom. An examination of Trump’s impact on NATO and the defense of Ukraine.

There’s a longer discussion in regard to the fact that Trump is out of office yet is significantly affecting US foreign policy.

...

Grenell has been acting as a kind of shadow secretary of state

.The manner in which Russia has occupied Ukraine means that stopping the war does NOT mean stopping the killing of Ukrainians.

Russians have gained 250 square kilometers since the Republican-led House cut off aid.

Russia “suspects” Ukrainian head of security service played a role in Crocus City massacre and demands Ukraine turn him over. Ukraine refuses.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/03/31/war-for-ukraine-day-767-russia-bombarded-ukraine-again-overnight/

2024/03/29

War in Ukraine 28Mar2024

 

Russia seems to have chosen playgrounds in Kharkiv as their legitimate targets.

Targets for Russian missile strikes are “civilian infrastructure, especially energy generation, transmission, and agricultural production and storage.” They’re striking at 2:00am, specifically to stress out civilians. Tonight was an all-provinces alarm. Russia knows full well that the Republican House majority will be on vacation for another 10 days.

Zelenskyy welcomes a new head of foreign intelligence and has a conversation with Speaker Johnson.

Ukraine figures Russia will launch a major offensive in late May or June.

The total explosive power of combined air attacks on Ukraine since the beginning of the year exceeds 9 kilotons. Only 3% of those russian missiles, drones, and guided bombs hit military targets, while 97% struck civilian infrastructure.

Germany steps up.

Czech government is looking all over the world for artillery shells and finding lots!

Looking at early US planning on the war, the objective was “to ensure that Ukraine emerged from the war as a democratic, independent, and sovereign state.” Not to win or to even regain all of its territory, mind you, but simply to hold out.

Russian stuff blowing up.

Russia appears to have allowed the attack on the Crocus City Hall to succeed. If they want to have a purge of officers, this makes for a great excuse.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/03/28/war-for-ukraine-day-764-air-raid-alerts-are-up-over-most-of-ukraine/

2024/03/25

War in Ukraine 24Mar2024

 

Ukraine is not engaged in any sort of civilian mass slaughter like what happened at the Crocus disco. Russia, on the other hand, continues to aim drones, Kinzhal (hypersonic), cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukrainian cities, firing 18 cruise missiles and 25 Shahed drones just last night.

Zelenskyy estimates that “190 missiles of various types and almost 140 ‘Shahed’ drones. … [and] almost 700 guided aerial bombs” were launched against Ukraine in just one week.

Woo hoo! Two Russian ships sunk!

Blogger feels that failure to bust the leaders of the 2021 revolt led to the present-day situation where that leader is preventing the US from supplying Ukraine.

Russian missile crosses into Polish airspace. Poland files a diplomatic protest.

Russians hit “thermal power plant and all the electrical substations in Kharkiv.”

Food Train producing 9k meals a day in Kharkiv.

Russian-occupied Sevastopol hit with multiple missiles. Communications center hit. Ukraine launches far fewer missiles, but they’re better-aimed from having better intelligence. Russian oil refineries hurting VERY badly!

Concerning terrorist attack on Crocus in Moscow: “If the attack is not connected to Ukraine, then Putin’s propaganda against Ukraine and justification for the invasion become nil.” Putin MUST connect attack to Ukraine!

Russian propaganda produces deepfake video of Ukraine's top security official Oleksiy Danilov.

Our blogger explains media bias and Trump’s influence over US foreign policy.

https://balloon-juice.com/2024/03/24/war-for-ukraine-day-760-russia-bombards-ukrainian-civilian-targets-again/

 

2024/03/19

The MAL case - records seized from Mar-a-Lago

Judge Cannon, who is overseeing the MAL case, wrote the following as part of a guide on how lawyers for both sides can instruct juries:

 

I’m not a lawyer, but I was a History major in college and have done quite a bit of independent reading in it. President Reagan’s records were the first to be stored under the 1978 Presidential Records Act (PRA). This Act held that the records that were to be stored by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) were:

any records generated during a Presidential administration documenting the constitutional, statutory or ceremonial duties of the Presidency are the property of the United States.

Note that this description includes absolutely nothing about the President having any discretion to designate any records as “personal.” The Clinton Sock Drawer case did not help matters because it held that NARA had no authority to seize records that it deemed to be official. This is why Special Counsel Smith has not pursued charges using the PRA. Nevertheless, the former National Archives litigation director Jason Baron, who is now a professor at the University of Maryland and Bradley Moss of the Mark S. Zaid law firm hold that the audiotapes that Clinton produced with historian Taylor Branch were clearly personal records as they “were in the nature of a diary or journal in recorded form.” The records seized at Mar-a-Lago, OTOH, Judicial Watch’s Tom Fitton (Not a lawyer, BTW) testified to a grand jury that “shows Trump had unfettered power to designate documents as personal records outside of the reach of the National Archives.”

The piece above explains that this theory has never been tested, but the obvious problem is, if this interpretation were accurate, then in theory, if Trump were to get back into office for a second term, he could order Seal Team Six to kill the former President Biden and then designate the official communications whereby he transmitted that order as private, personal records.

Also, please note the sloppy and insecure manner in which the ex-President Trump stored records at his jazzed-up country club, Mar-a-Lago. Many empty folders were found among the records that were retrieved. Trump himself may have removed the contents. My own theory is that persons unknown rifled through the unsecured boxes, pulled out classified documents and stashed them in a shopping bag, backpack, briefcase, whatever. Classified documents are written on standard office paper where folders are made of card stock. It was simply inconvenient and unnecessary for our document thieves to carry folders with them. Of course, how many classified documents stored in folders, were simply taken wholesale, we would only know by looking a what documents are still not recovered. If records are collected by NARA, they are carefully sorted, packed up and then organized under secure conditions.

And again, giving the President the authority to arbitrarily decide whether a record was private and personal or official, that is, whether the President could store it on his own or needed to turn it over to NARA means he can simply hide records of misdeeds.